Oscar Predictions

by B Condon 5:07 PM

The Academy Awards is my Superbowl without commercials, a full 24 hours of coverage covering pre-preshow, pre-show, red carpet, the awards themselves, and then the after parties. It seems a silly self indulgent thing for a person to be involved in - but when it comes to the Hollywood politics, they are in all pretty predictable, but there's always a few surprises. These are the surprises I'm hoping for.

BEST PICTURE:

Black Swan

So I'm biased, I have only seen this in theaters and Inception out of all of the nominations. But this movie had "B-Approved" written all over it. What advantages that Black Swan have outside of a postmodern technological pro-consumeristic film such as The Social Network that will probably unfortunately win, is the fact that Black Swan is one of the FIRST art films nominated since... well ever as far as my knowledge goes. So why not start now? Black Swan's themes of duality, true self and mental psychoses is probably just as modern as Inception and The Social Network. This is creative without being based out of concept, which is common trend lately in the making of films, there is something this movie has that the others don't. CREATIVITY. UNIQUENESS. Who could come up with another movie like this? All the other films in this category has at least one other movie you can relate it to. That's what Black Swan doesn't have, and thank God!

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Colin Firth has been an overlooked asset for as long as I can remember by the Academy, nominated for A Single Man last year and multiple other nominations but none was enough for the Academy Panel. As of this year, he fits the standard. The panel loves an actor who can either be angry and deep or a historical figure and if you're lucky, you can get both in one person. Firth as the stuttering King George VI who needs some speech help, the role itself seems rather monotonous but for the actor himself, it's about damned time.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

There's another standard that is predominate amongst the Academy panelists and that does not count Ernest Borgnine's disgust over Brokeback Mountain. Veteran actors are encouraged to win, especially if they are eccentrics. While Lionel Logue maybe more on the British eccentric side, I would rather Geoffrey Rush win than Christian Bale, although it's highly speculative.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Again, I may be biased - but who else looks more lovely under Aronofsky's heavily textured grainy filters of intentional or unintentional 75 millimeter? Natalie Portman's performance by critics has been name-called to stiff to uninspiring and merely a victim to an overproduced movie. But that is the point, whether we look at the movie as a modern day answer to magical realism or a satire, Portman's performance as Nina a victim to the tight fasciousness of her mother and her dance instructor. Or the performance of what it truly means to be a method actor, Portman's ability to show that magical realistic characters is possible - despite the possibility of the Academy's attempts of being consistently politically correct of possibly award the Best Actress to Annette Bening for the Kids are Alright. So the real question is, can fantasy/magical realism possibly outweigh PC reality?

Actress in a Supporting Role

One of the most unenthusiastic nominated category in years, but many people are actually excited to see the golden man wedged between Melissa Leo's gigantic breasts. No, thank you! While we have had enough darkness to this year's predictions from a deranged ballerina, a stuttering King and an neurotic speech instructor, last thing I want is a rough-and-tough mother of two wrestlers. We have had enough of female power, at least unless it comes in the form of a sixteen year old with more balls than her male counterparts. Hailee Steinfield as an orphaned adolescent in the West, hoping to find her father balances biting comments that are not so Academy approved and the classic toughness of Old West ladies in a youthful presence. But, for this category, it's only anyone's guess at this point.

Best Director

Hands down, again all bias aside, Aronofsky has an ability to completely suck you in with the tiny elements of his craft. His time line up until now has attempted to make Mickey Rourke cool once more with an Oscar in "The Wrestler" and a 90s staple out of "Requiem for a Dream." What Aronofsky has that The Social Network's David Fincher doesn't have is the uncanny ability to be so attentive to tiny detail and not presenting a true-to-life consumerist rags to riches story. You would think in a time where movies are becoming less creative, Aronofsky's attempts at bringing high art into film would be commendable. So I beg you Academy, let the right man win.

Aesthetics Awards

Art Direction - Alice in Wonderland
Cinematography - Black Swan
Costume Design - the King's Speech
Film Editing - Black Swan
Sound Editing - Inception
Sound Mixing - Inception
(I am VERY disappointed that Black Swan was not nominated for any sound categories)
Visual Effects - Inception
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) - True Grit
Writing (Original Screenplay) - Inception